Obviously, this isn’t really me rooting for a Dem to win the general. The question is…which one is easier for McCain to beat?
I think it’s almost a tie. If Hillary is nominated, you have a candidate who has negative ratings of 40% and up. The “I’ll vote for a toaster oven over her” crowd. Which includes me.
So, high negatives, good news for Republicans.
Then you got Barack. Obama’s weaknesses are clear — two terms as a state Senator and half a term as a real Senator. Although it also gives him a very limited voting record. But that cuts both ways. There’s no doubt McCain would beat him in experience, but can a 71-year-old fend off an energized Barack Obama?
The conservative base would certainly turn out more for an Obama general rather than a Hillary general, I think. Obama is just way too liberal. Likable as he is, I’d rather, if the Reps are defeated, have HRC in office than Barack Obama. Not by much, but by a smidge.
HRC may also suffer from “Bush-Clinton” fatigue in the general as well. You know, the curse of the plutocracy we’ve lived under for a couple of decades. I’m sick of it; everyone is sick of it. Give us something not named Bush or Clinton. I don’t care if it’s a moderate-sized rock. Seriously.
I think, on the balance, though, in the end, you’d want an Obama general if you’re a conservative. I don’t think the oratory can outmuscle McCain’s experience. Let’s not forget that McCain is not some nice, peaceful, serene guy. He has a temper and a long history of shooting his mouth off bigtime (he curses all the time as well). Guy does have balls. Obama will run more liberally than Hillary would. HRC would occupy the same “moderate” space on the Dem side that McCain represents on the Rep side. I don’t think Clinton fatigue gets you past that. Total inexperience, which Obama brings, might crop up quite badly in debates during the general election.
Although at the end of the day, it truly is a doubled-edged sword on the Dem side for Reps. And still a hard pill to swallow for conservatives with McCain the nominee.